Did an angry mob decide the wrong man was the winner? Have an angry mob destroyed a village? Are the villagers in a rage because the winners have failed to get along, or are the winners not getting along? I’ll explain, using a sample experiment, and if so, why. It doesn’t have to be the end of the world.
An experimental example can be found in William F. Pepper’s (1906) study of a community in North Dakota that had a roulette wheel. His team ran a large experiment that involved a huge number of games, ranging from 5×5 roulette to 3×3 roulette. They found that at each step—even between game steps—participants had mixed feelings about the roulette. Some were strongly positive, some were mildly positive, and some were strongly negative. It was an experiment, a well-conducted experiment, and Pepper is famous for demonstrating the “noise” that results from the noise of a randomized group of people who don’t know each other well.
His results were quite startling. In games which were rigged, participants rated roulette as no better than a coin-toss. In a rigged game, the difference between the roulette and the coin had more than half the variance of the coin. In game with real cards or dice, the roulette had more than 50% of the variance of the game. And when the roulette was rigged, people did so with the explicit knowledge that the game was rigged. The person who didn’t know the game was the roulette winner was more positive about it. They were less concerned that he was cheating. The person who didn’t know the game was the roulette winner became a bit anxious about him.
The results were even more striking when they manipulated how people interpreted the “puzzles”—a game that had similar randomness, but was rigged in this way. People interpreted the “puzzles” (they could look at the dice when they were rolling one of their own cards, or they could try out a fake card drawn from the deck) very differently. What matters wasn’t the quality of the outcome of the game. Rather, the outcome mattered. As Pepper discovered, people judged the dice, the roulette, and the game as they would a lottery ticket when evaluating the outcome of a rigged game.
Of course it is unfair to apply this result of the “noise” to all roulette games. People might find the rules in the rigged game
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